Bush got the wrong Arithmetic

It’s almost a year since US led coalition troops started the strike against Iraq. Let’s condole this moment of infamy with some real facts and see how Bush went wrong in his arithmetic. It all started with Bush claiming the presence of weapons of mass destruction. Since then there is a big loss of wealth and men both the sides. The fact is more than 20,000 civilians have died (most of them children and women) and Iraq is totally damaged even without proper electricity and basic needs. No actual purpose was solved by this war.

Even considering the point that Bush thought of conquering the oil fields in Iraq and establishing a global market, by which he can bring up a good improvement in US economy, his calculations did not work as intended. One is through a burgeoning official defense budget, which stood at $375.3 billion in 2003 and is estimated to be $401.7 billion in 2004. The failure to restore damaged oil facilities and the attacks on oil installations by the resistance to the war have meant that production has limped back to just 2.2 million barrels a day, which was the average level it had reached in 2002. Yet, the President's Office of Management and Budget, recently reported to the U.S. Congress that oil revenues, which touched $3.9 billion in 2003, would rise to $13 billion this year. The point to note is that even this optimistic estimate, which is more than unlikely to be realized, will not cover the operating costs of the Iraqi government, estimated at $15.6 billion for 2004.

The Bush administration claims proudly that it has set the Iraqi people free from the clutches of Sadam, the Iraqi people don't show even a small sign of it. Many would have watched people from Fallujah shouting anti-American slogans and dragging the bodies of four American civilians. The most terrifying fact is that out of the 597 American soldiers killed till now; nearly 480 of them were killed after Bush announced that the major combat is over.

THERE is a larger story behind these developments. One of the puzzles of U.S. economic growth in recent times is a combination of a robust recovery with no jobs. While gross domestic product (GDP) growth has been in excess of 4 per cent, unemployment still stands at an uncomfortable 5.6 per cent. On an annualized basis, the 21,000 jobs created in February 2004 amounted to less than 10 per cent of the 2.6 million jobs the Bush administration has promised to generate in this year. The cause for the recovery is quite clear: a massive rise in government spending fuelled by the occupation of Iraq.



Courtesy - The Frontline